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The Google Killer - comScore (SCOR) Doomsday Scenario

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ComScore did what Yahoo, Microsoft, Facebook, and Digg only dreamed of.

ComScore killed the search engine star.

ComScore data on Google paid clicks rocked the world this week. The proprietary comScore qSearch report was analyzed to death by Wall St. analysts and media pundits. Data: summarized and judged; Google, convicted, flogged and sentenced to an early demise.

It wasn’t hit and run, though: comScore’s SVP of Media and Search, James Lamberti, and CEO and Co-Founder Dr. Magid Abraham delve deep into the data to correct the rush to judgment in the marketplace. It’s a must-read. Great analysis; surprisingly lifeless title: “Why Google’s surprising paid click data are less surprising.”

It should’ve been “Data doesn’t kill Google, people do.”

QSearch showed a 7 percent decline in January ‘08 vs. December ‘07. Paid click annual growth? Flat for Google.

Month-over-month the number of paid clicks per search on Google dropped by 8 percent (December ‘07 to January ‘08). Consumers clicking less on search ads? Maybe. A weaker buying appetite?

Google’s share price took a hit and rebounded. Reports of Google’s early demise? Greatly exaggerated. That doesn’t mean the momentum-driven Google shares won’t take a hit if Google fails to impress the Street this quarter.

Wall St. analysts - looking for clues where Google gives no guidance - had accomplices: mainstream media and bloggers hoping for a Google stumble.

No one wants to miss the Hindenburg. The only problem? The Hindenburg Crashes Nightly when Google news goes viral.

The Google backlash reared its ugly head and this time it wasn’t just Valleywag.

LendingTree whose multimillion dollar paid search campaigns are managed by search marketing firm Efficient Frontier, made public its new online marketing strategy: cutting back on PPC or paid search.

LendingTree spokesperson Allison Vail was quoted in CNET News.com by Stefanie Olsen.

“With the Fed changes in January, we were driving natural traffic. It’s smarter for us,” said Vail.

Our readers know it’s always smart to optimize for natural search. I’m not sure anecdotal evidence from a financial services pure play in the throes of a global subprime mortgage crisis proves paid search revenues are declining.

Statistics from search marketing firms, though, would lend credence to the argument.

For average CPC (Cost Per Click) by industry vertical (Financial Services, Mortgage, Credit, Auto), click here.

Efficient Frontier Chairman Ellen Siminoff, chairman told CNET that paid search advertising spendi in financial services has typically risen between 30 percent and 50 percent annually.

So far this year it’s either flat or down for some companies. credit and mortgage advertisers raised their spending by 24 percent, but this year, their spending has risen only 3 percent year over year, according to Efficient Frontier data.

Coming soon: Efficient Frontier / Search Engine Watch Average CPC data for February.

Be the first investment banker or hedge fund manager on your block to see the stats.

Google in Wall St. Matrix: Faces Red or Blue Pill Dilemma

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The message from Wall St. to Google rang as clear as the opening bell today. Unfortunately for Google, it was finally “For Whom The Bell Tolls.”

After hours, Google found itself in a Matrix of its own making. Analysts played the role of Morpheus to Eric Schmidt’s Neo:

This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill - the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill - you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.”

The blue pill: Google starts giving guidance to Wall St. and manages expectations. The red pill: have it your way and suffer the slings and arrows of analysts who project exponential growth. Let’s face it, it’s tough for investors to read the tea leaves.

Look for Google stock to yoyo as investors try to figure out what’s behind the deceleration in growth. Mary Meeker received some Homer Simpson-style credit for noting paid search revenues were at the core of Google’s problems. D’oh Henry.

Google posted revenue growth of 51% Y/Y and 14% Q/Q with Google properties revenue revenue growth up 58% Y/Y and 14% Q/Q.

Google stated property revenue growth (+58% Y/Y) was driven by “strength in the holiday retail season.” We’ll look closer at what’s really driving Google revenue growth in the coming days. Battelle summed it up: Google…Disappoints.

Google network revenues increased 37% Y/Y and 12% Q/Q. Strong international performance, with $2.3 billion in Q4 international revenue.

Google has added some “dots” to their new slogan: now, “Search.Ads.Apps Strategy.” The Street feels they’d be better off dotting their i’s and crossing their t’s in executing on social media / social search strategies.

Google ecosystem numbers were healthy. Good for the rest of the Internet; not as good apparently for Google. Traffic Acquisition Costs, revenues Google shares with partners in the Google ecosystem jumped to $1.44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007. Last quarter, TAC of $1.22 billion in the third quarter of 2007.

TAC as a percentage of advertising revenues was 30% in the fourth quarter, compared to 29% in the third quarter of 2007.