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It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

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Okay, I understand that we’re all trying to “give a jolt” to the economy. But I was still surprised today when Lycos provided a list of Christmas gift ideas two days before Thanksgiving Day. Aren’t we all supposed to wait until Black Friday?

Nevertheless, for shoppers who like planning ahead — or for online retailers and etailers looking for what will be hot this holiday season — Lycos just announced its ninth annual list of the most popular toys and video games, based on web search activity.

(For a complete list and commentary of the Lycos Top Toys and Video Games of 2008, go to the Lycos 50. You can also voice your opinion on this year’s list, and weigh in on weekly Internet trends and pop culture on the Lycos 50 Blog or follow the Lycos 50 on Twitter.)

It shouldn’t come as a shock that Apple’s iPod holds the top spot as the #1 most-searched for toy this holiday season. But this year, the Apple frenzy includes hot-searched items like the iTouch and iPod Nano.

Harry Potter, at #11, makes a fifth consecutive appearance in 2008, with Harry Potter games, books and DVDs dominating Harry Potter-themed searches.

New in 2008 is KOTA, the Triceratops Dinosaur (#15), generating more search interest than Fisher Price’s New Elmo Live (#19). Meanwhile, not so hot in 2008 are Hannah Montana-related toy items, which made a big splash in 2007, but fail to make this year’s list.

Spongebob Squarepants (#14) takes over as the top licensed character-themed toy of 2008. Spongebob was last seen on the Lycos Top Toy list in 2005. And when it comes to dolls, Barbie (#6) continues to reign, extending her run on the annual Lycos list of Top Toys and Video Games to nine consecutive years of appearing in the Top 10. But there’s not enough data on Caribou Barbie to see if that will be a big hit this year — let alone in 2012.

Gaming consoles see a big resurgence in search popularity in 2008, with the Nintendo Wii (#10) capturing the most search interest, generating 25% more search activity than the Xbox 360 (#12) and Playstation 3 (#13). Also seeing a resurgence in 2008 are old school classics like Monopoly (#17), despite the current housing market.

Five of the top 25 toys in 2008 originate from the popular world of anime including Naruto (#3), Pokemon (#4), Dragonball (#5), Inuyasha (#7) and Gundam (#16). Meanwhile, one new toy making the 2008 list may be unfamiliar to most adults, but if search activity is any indication, expect the Bakugan Battle Brawlers (#24) to be flying off the shelves this holiday season.

On the video game front, the massive multi-player game RuneScape (#1) scores big with web users for the fourth consecutive year as the most-searched video game of 2008, while Final Fantasy makes its first appearance on the list since 2005, with Final Fantasy XIII (#3). Also racking up points online, making first-ever appearances on the top video games list, are war-themed games including Call of Duty: World at War (#9) and Gears of War 2 (#14), while Guitar Hero World Tour (#8) and Wii Fit (#15) are the most popular Wii-themed games based on web searches in 2008.

Also new in 2008 are Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 games Fable 2 (#17), Fallout 3 (#18), Street Fighter IV (#10), Dead Space (#19), Far Cry 2 (#22) and BioShock (#25). This also marks the fourth consecutive year the Madden football-themed games fail to make Lycos’s Top Toys and Video Games list.

As for me, I don’t do any Christmas shopping until the very last minute. That way, I don’t have to figure where to hide presents where my three kids (or wife) can find them before December 24th. Yep, when I say “last minute Christmas shopping” I mean last minute shopping. You’d be surprised how simple decisions are on Christmas eve.

SearchIgnite has released data showing that the search ad spend for retailers is up 33% so far in the fourth quarter of 2008. The reason appears to be that multi-channel marketers are funneling more money to search, which has strong data on ROI.

“With the current economic climate leading up to the holidays, retailers are looking for ways to capture consumer spend and drive revenue in efficient ways,” said Roger Barnette, President of SearchIgnite.

Q4 spending is also up 58% over Q3 2008. Last year’s Q4 was up 40% over Q3 2007. And last year’s Q3 didn’t have an election to boost it’s numbers.

However, consumers are spending less per transaction. Still, the good news is that they are spending online at a steady rate of growth.

Related Reading:
SearchIgnite Releases Version 3.0 of Media Optimization Platform
SearchIgnite Releases Q1 Search Marketing Data

Even after you’ve won the client’s business and run a successful program, you still have to show the client what you did for their money. In today’s SEM agency issues column, “Great Expectations: How to Communicate SEO Value,” William Flaiz points out that communicating the value your search program provided is not to be taken lightly. It could mean the difference between a renewal and a one-off client project.

» Full story

Over the summer, Google launched a Second Life-esque 3D chat product called Lively. It seems Lively is not exactly living up to its name. Google is killing Lively at the end of the year.

While Lively is certainly not the first Google product to head to the chopping block, its shelf life did seem a bit short. Still, Google says it needs to focus on its flagship areas of search, ads, and apps.

TopRank Online Marketing and the Direct Marketing Association have just announced a partnership to develop and deliver a series of educational workshops on social media marketing entitled, “Social Media Smarts: Introduction to the Social Web, Tools and Tactics.”

With marketers facing tighter budgets in the coming months, social media marketing offers new opportunities for companies to engage customers, improve brand awareness and increase sales with budgets that are more recession friendly than many traditional marketing efforts.

Leading the workshop will be Lee Odden, CEO of TopRank Marketing, who will introduce participants to the marketing opportunities with social media through best and worst practices examples. As you can see from the photo in this post, I’m much taller than Lee.

But, according to George Markham Director, Education Services at Direct Marketing Association, “Lee is a well rounded digital marketer uniquely qualified with over ten years experience as an internet marketing consultant and a background in corporate training.” Markham adds, “As a consultant working on the front lines of social media marketing for companies large and small, Lee brings first-hand knowledge and real-world examples to teach attendees how to develop a successful social media strategy.”

But I’m still taller.

The Social Media Smarts workshop will provide attendees with insight into blogging and blog marketing, social networks, microblogging, social news and bookmarking, video sharing, image and audio sharing, wikis and social media analytics.

Rounding out the workshop is a social media strategy exercise that will empower attendees to create their own social media strategy and develop a framework for building a business case within their organizations.

Lee is quoted in a press release as saying, “As a high demand digital marketing and PR agency, we’re seeing tremendous benefits from educating in-house marketing staff on the finer points of social media marketing.” He adds, “Offering both good and bad social media marketing examples along with strategy, tools, tactics and analytics can really empower companies to succeed.”

Now, I’ve served on panels with Lee. I know Lee. And that’s exactly the way Lee talks.

The first of the Social Media Smarts workshop series will be conducted in New York, December 4th and 5th, at the Microtek training facility in lower Manhattan. If you are in the nieghborhood, drop by and heckle Lee.

And remember: I’m taller. Actually, I was standing on my toes for this photo. Lee’s actually pretty tall, too.

This Saturday, YouTube will be hosting its first ever live streaming event. The broadcast will feature a music and variety show being held at Fort Mason Center’s Herbst Pavilion in San Francisco.

The event begins at 8pm EST and will feature Soulja Boy Tellam, Will.i.am, Tay Zonday of Chocolate Rain fame and a bunch of “talent” from the YouTube community.

Thankfully, Ask a Ninja will be there. He’s one of my favorite YouTube sensations of all time.

Most importantly, there will be dance. But will it top Justin Timberlake as Beyonce’s backup dancer on that other live variety show that airs on Saturdays last weekend? Me thinks not. (Dangit. NBC has still NOT posted that skit on Hulu.com. Really, NBC?)

Related Reading:
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Google AdWords has released a new keyword tool. This one lets users plug in their website and a few keywords. The tool, dubbed Search-based keyword tool, takes a look at the site and makes suggestions for keywords that may be relevant to your paid search campaign.

The idea is that you might be missing out on terms that are being searched for. I have to admit, when I’ve used keyword tools, I’ve often been wishing I knew what people were searching for instead of guessing.

But the SEO copywriter in me also knows that so many sites are already optimized for keyword terms based on traditional keyword research, which often starts with a guess.

Plus, the existing keyword tool takes keywords and phrases plugged in by the user already returns a bunch of suggestions.

The tool’s strength lies in avoiding human error. In other words, the existing AdWords keyword tool relies on human entry. This tool looks at the site and can help marketers avoid overlooking terms they may have missed.

Still, remember the tool is in beta. And Google makes it clear that it’s not responsible if you use their suggested keywords in a way that violates the law. Say, by creating an ad that includes a trademarked term.

Related Reading:
AdWords Keyword Tool Now Shows Numerical Data

There were lowered expectations for the 2008 Holiday shopping season before the bottom dropped out of the economy, but now it’s even worse. But you and your clients still have to make the best of things, so we’re here to help.

Search Engine Watch is offering a one-hour webcast, “How to Survive the Economic Meltdown & Succeed this Holiday Season,” taking place on Wednesday, November 19 at 1 p.m. EDT.

You’ll get some Holiday PPC campaign tips from Keith Hong, senior director of Clickable’s Assist and Customer Experience group (and former head of Ask.com customer management group). He’ll explain what you should already have done to prepare for success, and what you must do throughout the holiday season to adapt to volatile market and demand spikes. He’ll also offer some advice on how to stay calm and ensure success amidst this economic meltdown.

When times are tough, it’s even more important that you spend your marketing dollars efficiently. This SEW Webcast can help you learn how to do that.

Please sign up today.

Eric Schmidt may have turned down the job of Obama’s CTO, but he’s still part of the President-elect’s transition team. And during this transition time, the Google CEO will give a speech about the future of technology and economic growth.

The speech will take place in DC, next Tuesday, November 18, 2008 from 1:00 - 2:30pm EST. The event is hosted by the New America Foundation and will occur at the Ronald Reagan Building Ampitheater at 1300 Pennsylvania Ave NW. Be sure to RSVP if you wish to attend.

Can’t attend? There will be a live webcast. Click on the RSVP link above to watch. You’ll need Flash 9.