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Preparing for the Worst: Bad Online Economic Data Just in Time for Black Friday

It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

emarketerprojections112608percent.jpg

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Related Reading:
Selling SEO During an Economic Downturn
E-commerce Growth Slows to Just 1% in October 2008
Online Advertising Networks Struggle As Industry Growth Slows

Retail Search Ad Spend Up 33% So Far in Q4 2008

SearchIgnite has released data showing that the search ad spend for retailers is up 33% so far in the fourth quarter of 2008. The reason appears to be that multi-channel marketers are funneling more money to search, which has strong data on ROI.

“With the current economic climate leading up to the holidays, retailers are looking for ways to capture consumer spend and drive revenue in efficient ways,” said Roger Barnette, President of SearchIgnite.

Q4 spending is also up 58% over Q3 2008. Last year’s Q4 was up 40% over Q3 2007. And last year’s Q3 didn’t have an election to boost it’s numbers.

However, consumers are spending less per transaction. Still, the good news is that they are spending online at a steady rate of growth.

Related Reading:
SearchIgnite Releases Version 3.0 of Media Optimization Platform
SearchIgnite Releases Q1 Search Marketing Data

Women Plan to Spend Less this Holidays, First Cuts Going to Themselves

Women are planning to spend less according to two surveys released today.

In a survey by the Marketing to Moms Coalition, moms plan to cut spending on holiday gifts. Offline is expected to be hit the hardest, with an 8% drop over last year. Online will decline by 2%.

  • 87% of moms plan to shop at big discount retailers like Wal-mart and Target
  • Department stores come in second at 37%.
  • Shoe and specialty clothing retailers come in third at 35%.

“Older kids tend to want expensive presents like cell phones, video games, trendy clothes and computer equipment,” says Maria Bailey, a founder of the Marketing to Moms Coalition, and author of the book, Mom 3.0, Marketing with Today’s Mother by Leveraging New Media and Technology. “Moms are telling their older kids that this year, they’re just going to have to wait.”

Another survey from Frank About Women shows that women (not just moms) are planning to cut holiday spending. First on the chopping block? Themselves.

62% of women are asking friends and family to forgo buying them a gift this year due to the economy.

They asked survey participants who would be cut from the gift list that normally would be on.

  • 57% of those who normally give gifts to their neighbors plan to forego the gift this year
  • 53% will skip their bosses
  • 52% will cut employees and service providers (i.e. hairdressers) from their list
  • 50% won’t give gifts to co-workers this year

So, who is getting a gift this year?

  • 96% said they won’t let a bad economy stand in the way of giving gifts to their kids
  • 86% will give gifts to their parents
  • 85% will give gifts to their spouse or partner (Stay out of the dog house, guys!)

“Not only are women planning to spend less on others, they are actively encouraging their friends and family to omit them from the gift list this year,” says Nicole Green, senior strategic brand planner at FAW. “This self-sacrificing mindset represents a significant cultural shift as a renewed sense of fiscal responsibility and frugality trump spending and splurging for many women. Marketers who speak to the real meaning of the holidays are more likely to resonate with women this season and benefit from their spending power.”

Related Reading:
Microsoft Study Reveals Online and Digital Behavior of Women
Mom Bloggers Prove Powerful Resource to Marketing and Branding Success
Moms See Search as Task-Oriented; Websites as Entertainment

SEW Experts: Porn and Gambling: Canaries in the SEM Coal Mine?

Search Engine Watch Expert - Frank WatsonSearch Engine Watch Expert - Chris BoggsMany advances in marketing on the Web are the result of spending by the profitable and competitive porn and gambling industries. In today’s SEM Crossfire column, “Porn and Gambling: Canaries in the SEM Coal Mine?,” Frank Watson and Chris Boggs explore recent lawsuits in both industries that might help us again, by pointing out some specific areas for marketers to keep an eye on.

» Full story

Google’s “In Quotes” Search Helps the Spin Go Round and Round

Just in time for the debates (whenever they happen), Google has released a political search engine called “In Quotes.” The search engine helps people find what John McCain or Barack Obama have said about a variety of issues. (For elections in Canada, India, or the UK, see the drop-down menu in the top right hand corner.)

Sad but true, elections are often won and lost on one-liners, whether they be gaffes or zingers. Now, “In Quotes” will help passionate politicos perpetuate the sound bites fast and furious.

Interestingly enough, the “quotes” that appear on the front page are already soundbites culled by reporters. It would be a little more helpful if the search results provided excerpts from speeches posted on the candidates’ websites so that people could (finally) start investigating the context of what was said.

Related Reading:
John McCain Outspending Barack Obama in Search Engine Advertising
Obama v. McCain in Online Display Ads, Video Views, and Searches
Is John McCain or Barack Obama Winning the YouTube Vote?
Can Google Predict the Next President?

Thinking Of Cutting SEO Off?

During hard economic times – like the one we are in right now – many things are cut off from people’s budgets. Personal expenses are drastically cut down. Business expenses are not exempt as well. Somehow, people find ways and means by which to lessen spending in order to weather the financial [...]

Online Video Advertising to Peak in 2012 Predicts eMarketer Report

According to a new report from eMarketer entitled, “Video Advertising Online: Spending and Pricing,” online video advertising will peak at 78.9% in 2012 — when “both traditional and alternative media companies will be distributing far more professional-quality video content online, and when the national elections and the summer Olympics will contribute far more to video ad spending than they will in 2008.”

US%20Online%20Video%20Advertising%20Spending%20Growth.gif
That doesn’t mean that growth has been anemic this year. According to eMarketer, this year’s 55.9% increase in online video ad spending is a key indication that the channel is at least gaining speed — accompanied by parallel growth in the kind of trusted video content, such as sports, to support it.

David Hallerman, senior analyst at eMarketer and author of the new report, says, “Next year, there will be slightly slower growth, due to the still-struggling economy and the fact that advertisers are working out the best ways to do online video ads.”

He adds, “Marketers want video advertising for its far-greater branding power than other online formats.” Meanwhile, “Publishers want video advertising for its far-greater revenues — or at least higher CPMs—than other online ad formats.”

Stay tuned to see what happens next.

As consumers cut back, marketers offer “recession specials”

Earlier this week, comScore released the results of a study examining recent changes in consumer attitudes and perceptions about the state of the U.S. economy. The study found that consumers in all income segments are cutting back on spending due to concerns about the economy, and that they were doing so to an even greater extent in July 2008 than in April 2008.

So, what does this mean for search engine marketers?

Many consumers have become increasingly cost conscious and are turning to the Internet for pricing information. The survey findings revealed that nearly three out of four consumers believe the Internet has made it “a lot easier” or “somewhat easier” to find better, more useful pricing information.

In addition, 75 percent of respondents said that they believe the Internet will become an even more important channel for pricing information, with 41 percent of respondents saying it will be “a lot more important” and 34 percent of respondents saying it will be “somewhat more important” in the future.

Do you need some examples to drive this point home?

In New York, Andrew Jeffery of Minyanville.com reports, “It appears the city that never sleeps has finally succumbed to the economic slowdown, and it’s not just the neon “Recession Special” sign outside Gray’s Papaya.”

In San Francisco, Liza Zimmerman of the S.F. Wine & Cocktail Examiner reviews a “Recession special: the Viansa 2007 Dolcetto is another well-executed example of using classic Mediterranean grapes on California soil.”

When Hyundai asked the Complex Blog to review their first Genesis offering touching down in the states, the company best known for econo-boxes “threw Complex the keys and we took this recession special for a ride.”

But wait! There’s more!

Go to the Rates and Registration Details page for SES Chicago 2008. Just like last year, there is an Early Bird Rate that enables you to save $200 if you register before November 21. But, unlike last year, there is also a “Recession Special,” which lets you save $600 if you register before September 26.

Recession%20special.jpg And if you want to appear as “sartorially challenged” as one SEM industry observer said “the brains of Search Engine Marketing and Search Engine Optimization are,” then turn up at SES Chicago wearing the “Recession Special Shirt” being offered by Ten Deep at Turntablelab.com. According to the review, “Nothing like a nice, timely shirt that reflects things going on in today’s headlines.”

Of course, wearing such a shirt violates the dress code in the SES Speaker Guidelines, which states: “Business casual attire is recommended. Formal business attire is perfectly fine. If in doubt, overdress. You won’t feel out of place, as many speakers will also be in formal attire. How you look has an impact on how well the audience receives your presentation.”

It’s a classic dilemna for marketers: Follow the guidelines or take advantage of today’s headlines. What would I recommend? I’d advise you to jump on the “recession special” to save $600, but skip over the shirt. But, I should disclose that SES is a client. If you want to take more of a fashion risk, that’s a decision that you’ll have to make for yourself.

Obama v. McCain in Online Diplay Ads, Video Views, and Searches

After two weeks of political conventions, comScore is releasing data regarding activity for the candidates of the two major political parties in the U.S.

comScore has analyzed the online display ad views, website video views, and searches conducted for Senators John McCain and Barack Obama.

Obama leads McCain in online display ad spending and searches conducted. McCain may want to look into competing better in online display ads - if they’re working for the Senator from Illinois, something perhaps only his campaign knows. Both numbers probably speaks to Obama being less known as well as his popularity over McCain, which has been demonstrated in the polls.

McCain did begin outspending Obama in search advertising in May and June. Subsequently, the race tightened according to polls. Google has attributed both candidates’ primary wins to their search advertising spends.

Here’s are the charts from today’s comScore release:

comscorepoldisplayads0908.jpg

comscorepolvideoviews0908.jpg

comscorepolsearches0908.jpg

Top 10 Videos on YouTube from SES San Jose 2008

SES San Jose 2008 was held just a couple of weeks back, but still gives us enough time to find out what topics the top 10 videos on YouTube from the event were about.

Okay, so I only looked at the YouTube videos posted on the SESConferenceExpo’s channel — but that provides an apples to apples comparison. Besides, this is more about the topics discussed at the show than the popularity of the one channel versus another.

So, what are the topics covered in the top 10 videos from SES San Jose 2008?

1. (with 251 views) Avinash’s Long Tail Terms, Bouncy Icebergs, and Analytics

Avinash Kaushik of Google and Bryan Eisenberg of Future Now, Inc., talk about goals, bounce rates, and all sorts of important topics for marketers interested in measuring their campaigns, especially with Google Analytics. Later on in the video, Avinash talks about new features in Google Analytics like the partner program and data visualizations to help marketers understand what works and what doesn’t. He moves on to testing at the end, and plugs Bryan’s new Google Website Optimizer book, Always Be Testing.

2. (with 128 views) Small Business Viral Marketing Tips, SES San Jose 2008

Jennifer Laycock of Search Engine Guide and Andrew Goodman of Page Zero Media follow up their SES San Jose 2008 “Igniting Viral Campaigns” session with a discussion of the best tips on viral campaigns and social media marketing, especially for small business who want to make the most of their business online without spending too much money. The two talk about using social media sites like Linkedin and Twitter to communicate one’s marketing message to a dedicated and enthusiastic audience.

3. (with 121 views in 1 week) Mobile Search Lazarus, Mobi Job with Rebecca Lieb

Rebecca Lieb of ClickZ opines that mobile search is back and in a strong way, of course as a result of better smart phones and with what she and others see as the death of mobi. I interview Rebecca on her Death of .mobi panel at SES San Jose 2008 to learn more about the changing mobile search landscape.

4. (with 121 views in 2 weeks) Social Responsibility & SEM for Nonprofits with Jamie Welsh

Jamie Welsh of 10 Percent Solution talks with Byron Gordon of SEO-PR about her organization’s work to certify companies with respect to three categories: philanthropy, as defined through the donation of five percent of pre-tax profits or one percent of sales; volunteerism through individual employees; and green sustainability.

5. (with 80 views) Measuring Web 2.0 with Star Trek & SiteLogic’s Matt Bailey

Matt Bailey of SiteLogic Marketing talks Trekkie lore and web analytics with Jamie O’Donnell of SEO-PR about his SES San Jose 2008 panel on Web 2.0 measurement. Matt’s famous Star Trek/Web Analytics mashup played well at the show as he explained the increasing likelihood of Enterprise ensigns’ chances of survival given various circumstance, including the color of their shirts, shuttlecraft landings, and the captain’s amorous liaisons.

6. (with 78 views) Johanna Wright of Google on Google Universal Search

Johanna Wright of Google talks with me about Google’s Universal Search platform, which integrates various online media in its search results page to offer searchers a wider selection of relevant results. Johanna gives some insight for SEO (search engine optimization) pro’s into how the vertical backends are put together and advocates a thoughtful approach to making information accessible to Google through use of sitemaps and detailed descriptions.

7. (with 76 views) Lee Siegel Punches the Internet

Lee Siegel, author of Against the Machine, talks with Kevin Ryan of Search Engine Strategies and me about why the internet is an abuse — and not a use of the internet for human life. Well, that’s the big-picture idea, at least. Mostly he just beats up on Gawker. No objections here…?

8. (with 63 views) A/B Test Experts Tim Ash and Bryan Eisenberg

Tim Ash of SiteTuners and Bryan Eisenberg of Future Now, two A/B testing gurus, talk landing page testing shop on the conference floor at SES San Jose 2008. Tim and Bryan discuss the crucial nature of testing for the bottom line with the triple threat of incrased online competition, rising PPC costs, and a recession economy. Tim also talks about SiteTuners’ new self-service portal which opens up, for the first time, some of SiteTuners’ large-scale multivariate testing tools to in-house SEM’s (search engine marketers).

9. (with 57 views) How Much Search is Enough - Kevin Ryan at SES San Jose 2008

Kevin Ryan of Search Engine Strategies (SES) talks with Byron Gordon of SEO-PR at SES San Jose 2008 about his panel on holistic approaches to online marketing, in which he and the other agency panelists investigated what the appropriate mix of search and other online mediums was in properly integrated campaigns. Kevin relays some tips from the speakers regarding how to experiment in order to make the most of your online presence.

10. (with 54 views) Soothware Online Advertising Platform Intro with Tim Ogilvie

Tim Ogilvy of Soothware chats with John Mulligan of SEO-PR about his company, Soothware. Soothware helps advertisers manage their search advertising and display advertising campaigns in one place, tapping into Google and the RightMedia ad Exchange.

There are more videos on the SESConferenceExpo’s channel — and another 20+ videos from SES San Jose 2008 over on the WebProNews Video Blog. And you’ll find even more videos from the event at SEOWebTraffic’s Channel, SocialJulio’s Channel, StepForth’s Channel, HHeitzman’s Channel, SageRock’s Channel, ChrisDaviesCa’s Channel, misiggaes’ Channel, and HudsonHorizon’s Channel.

While you really had to be there to catch all the action, at least now you can get some samples of the what turned out to be the best attended SES of all time. That’s right. There were more people at SES San Jose 2008 than attended SES New York 2008 or SES San Jose 2007 — the next two biggest shows.

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