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Preparing for the Worst: Bad Online Economic Data Just in Time for Black Friday

It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

emarketerprojections112608percent.jpg

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Related Reading:
Selling SEO During an Economic Downturn
E-commerce Growth Slows to Just 1% in October 2008
Online Advertising Networks Struggle As Industry Growth Slows

Google Adds Voice Search to iPhone Search Application

Google is updating its iPhone search application with a new voice search feature, according to the New York Times. The update is expected to be available in the iTunes app store sometime today.

Users will be able to speak their questions into the phone. The speech is recorded and sent to Google servers which will try to understand the recording and find the answer via Google’s search engine.

One of the cool parts of the app is that it will use the iPhone accelerometer to know when a user has raised the phone to their ear. For the iPhone-less, the accelerometer senses motion. There’s a bunch of games that use this feature for their apps. So if you ever see an iPhone user making weird motions, that’s why.

The update wasn’t yet available in my iTunes, but I’m looking forward to checking it out when it is.

Oh, I should mention that Google isn’t the first to bring voice search to mobile. Microsoft and Yahoo already have brought voice search to some devices. But a search in the iTunes store didn’t reveal anything else that was a solid voice search app (not that Apple’s iTunes search is the best).

Related Reading:
Google Updates Search Results for iPhone
Google’s My Location Now with WiFi
Google Prepares iPhone Ad Options

New Yahoo! Home Page Includes Updated User Interface

The new Yahoo! front page went into testing a couple months ago. The redesign effort also coincides with the new user interface, YUI 3.

Here’s a peek:

newyahoopage1108.jpg

Nicholas Zakas of the Yahoo! User Interface team expanded on the UI efforts by explaining the goals for the framework of YUI 3:

  1. Eliminate global dependencies. We wanted each part of the page to operate separately from all of the others. Each part should have no knowledge of what else is on the page and therefore can’t depend on objects to be globally available. The 2.x library is based on the global YAHOO object, which we would have had to abstract away; the 3.x concept of YUI instances that could be individually manipulated worked perfectly to achieve this goal.
  2. Make it small, make it fast. The Front Page can’t afford to be slow, so we needed to have as little code as possible to get everything up and running. YUI 3 impressed us with its organization into small, atomic units that allowed us to specifically include parts of the library that we wanted while eliminating parts that were unnecessary. Further, one of the goals of YUI 3 was to optimize for runtime execution and make it faster than the 2.x version. Once again, YUI 3’s approach was directly in line with the Front Page’s goals.
  3. Create version independence. From the start, we didn’t want to have dependencies on specific versions of YUI components as this can lead to maintenance issues. What we really wanted was for each part of the page to be able to use whatever version of the components that they wanted. The sandboxing feature of YUI 3 opened up the possibility of having two (or more) YUI instances each loading different versions of various components while not interfering with each other.
  4. Allow code portability. Having worked at Yahoo! for a combined five years, Steve and I knew that anything we put on a Yahoo! property could be a candidate for porting to someplace else. We knew that this possibility meant the code had to stand on its own and not make assumptions about the environment in which it was placed. We thought about the most difficult environment possible: a locked-down browser environment where the JavaScript code has no direct access to the DOM. Since YUI 3 can abstract away the DOM through its Node interface, we had the entrypoint necessary to make this requirement a reality.
  5. Be forward compatible. The project to create a new Front Page is an incredibly long one and we wanted to be as forward-looking as possible. We knew that if we created the framework on YUI 2.x that we’d be hard pressed to get time to upgrade later on. By building on YUI 3 from the start, we eliminated the need for developing an upgrade path later on.

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Microsoft Goes after the Verizon Default Search Deal

Microsoft is attempting to pull the rug out from under Google’s talks with Verizon to be the default search engine on its mobile phones. And they’re doing so by dishing out the dough.

It’s no secret that Microsoft has a bunch of cash on hand. They’ve been using some of it to create incentive programs like Cashback and SearchPerks to essentially pay people to search.

Now, it looks like they’re willing to shell out some green by offering Verizon a larger piece of the revenue-sharing pie than Google has thus far offered.

Could this be why Google was unwilling to spend moolah on a costly court battle defending its now-defunct search advertising deal with Yahoo? Both Google and Yahoo said they could have won the suit, but Google declined to pursue it.

Could this be why Steve Ballmer is saying he’s not interested in acquiring Yahoo anymore (depsite the blue light special)?

Mobile is hot and it’s only going to get hotter. Becoming the default search engine on the largest mobile carrier in the U.S. (Verizon recently won approval for their acquisition of Alltel) is prime real estate indeed.

Google and Yahoo Revise Ad Partnership in Hopes of Winning Over DOJ

Google and Yahoo have revised their search advertising partnership in the hopes of winning over the DOJ. Primarily, the deal has been reduced from 10 to 2 years and a cap has been placed that would restrict Yahoo to only being able to bring into 25% of their search advertising revenue from the deal with Google.

It’s unlikely that shortening the deal will qualm the fears of advertisers. Robert Liodice, president of the Association of National Advertisers, which opposes the deal, told the New York Times, “If a deal can’t survive long-term scrutiny, what’s the benefit of allowing it for the short term?”

Still, keeping Yahoo alive as the second place competitor in the search market is ultimately good for advertisers. As Mike Masnick over at TechDirt wrote, “We’re still waiting for a clear explanation of how this deal will actually negatively impact consumers, but some people still insist it will. For those who believe so, let’s ask a simple question: how is this any worse than Yahoo disappearing from the marketplace? Because if the company doesn’t do something soon that may be what we’re looking at.”

Live Search Implements Instant Answers Into Search Results

We know that searchers want answers, and there are plenty of answer sites out there to fuel their curiosity. Now, Microsoft’s Live Search team is including some answers in their search results.

Encyclopedia, Traffic and Horoscope information will now display answers within results. For example, you can type in the question “How tall is Mount Everest?” and get the answer in the results.

I think search marketers will be happy about this. If you’re trying to sell a product, it can be frustrating when people come to your site who have no intention of buying anything.

The Live Search team says even more answers will be included in the future.

What do you think about the update? Let us know in the comments.

Android Week 1: Sprint’s Not on Board (Yet) and a Security Flaw Discovered

The first phone with Google’s new mobile platform Android was released last week on Tmobile. Unlike the iPhone, Android will be seen on more devices and more carriers in months and years to come.

But Sprint CEO Dan Hesse says Android isn’t quite ready to carry the Sprint name on a device - not yet anyway. He says that Sprint will carry an Android phone in the future, but the platform needs work.

It might be tempting to suggest that the struggling Sprint should hop on board. After all, Tmobile’s G1 pre-sold $1.5 million devices. But Sprint is smart to wait on a ready-for-prime-time device. It needs to sell solid products that garner their own word of mouth instead of simply hopping on a hype wagon.

One of the reasons Android might not be ready is because of a newly discovered security flaw. The flaw was found by former National Security Agency computer security specialist Charles Miller.

Miller has reported the flaw to Google, which says it is working with HTC and Tmobile to issue a fix to G1 customers.

Online Reviews Second Only to Word of Mouth in Purchase Decisions

New data released by Rubicon Consulting shows that online reviews are second only to word of mouth when it comes to influencing consumer purchasing decisions.

Here’s other key points from the survey:

  • The Web is the #2 resource for customer support information, after user manuals. It ranks ahead of calling the manufacturer or asking a dealer.
  • Website categories that get the most daily usage are search, social communities like MySpace and Facebook, general news websites like CNN.com and NYTimes.com, and online banking.
  • The websites that Americans value most are (in order), Google, Yahoo, YouTube, Wikipedia, and Facebook. Although Yahoo’s financial challenges have generated a lot of press attention, it continues to have a very large and loyal following.
  • Young people (age 22 and under) are much noisier online than their elders. They account for about half of all the content and comments posted online.
  • Facebook appears to be ahead of MySpace in terms of number of users in the US, and perceived value of the site.
  • Despite extensive publicity, the community sites SecondLife and Twitter reach only a few percent of US Internet users.
  • Democrats are more active online than Republicans. Democrats are more likely to participate in online communities, and say they are more heavily influenced in their voting decisions by information they find online.

Harry Max, a principal at Rubicon Consulting said, “Many companies downplay the importance of online communities because only a few percent of all Internet users contribute to them heavily. What they don’t understand is that most other Internet users read those reviews and rely on them heavily when making purchase decisions. Taking good care of online communities can be a huge money-saver for companies trying to get more marketing impact from limited budgets.”

I disagree. I think a lot of companies are interested in online communities but aren’t always sure how to engage consumers with them. However, with the economy the way it is, many companies are likely to cut social media first, as we saw in data released just the other day.

The biggest key to making sure you get good online reviews is to have a solid product or service. So, while you’re making those efficiencies in order to survive the slow economic times, make sure your products don’t suffer. Better yet, create efficient products and services and just watch those positive reviews come in.

To get the ball rolling, you might try pitching a few bloggers - especially mom bloggers if you have a product or service related to them.

Related Reading:
How to Bury Negative Online Mentions of You - Intermediate Level Tactics
Constructive feedback on online reputation management
SEO for Brand Reputation Management
Pssst. People are Talking… About Your Business!

How to Use the Five Paragraph Essay Writing Format

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how to use the five paragraph essay writing format

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