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It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Related Reading:
Selling SEO During an Economic Downturn
E-commerce Growth Slows to Just 1% in October 2008
Online Advertising Networks Struggle As Industry Growth Slows

Yahoo! has been testing a new home page design. Last week, we saw images and learned more about the user interface.

This week, Yahoo! has announced the addition of an eBay application to the home page test. The app is included on the left hand sidebar along with tabs for stocks, movies, local events, etc.

Check it out:

It’s easy to pick on Microsoft. It’s practically a national pastime at this point. So when they announced their Cashback program to help grow Live Search, the snears came fast and furious.

“You have to pay people to search?” they said.

Turn your laughter into claps, people. It turns out that Cashback is working. Microsoft is seeing positive results on three goals it said it would report. They are:

• Number of offers in the system
• Advertiser return on investment (ROI)
• Percentage of commercial search queries as measured by comScore

There’s been a 30% increase in the number of products offered via Cashback. 4.5 million unique users per month are generating 68 million commercial queries. eBay has seen an increase of 50% on their ROI.

“We believe this early traction speaks to the differentiated and unique value proposition of Microsoft Live Search cashback for both consumers and advertisers, especially in these tough economic times,” said Brad Goldberg, general manager of Microsoft Live Search.

Is it really any surprise that incentives work? No. Have you ever been listening to the radio and they’re having a $1,000 giveaway? You have to be listening at the right times to call in.

Incentives are nothing new. Microsoft was smart to implement them into Live Search. People don’t necessarily use Google because it’s any better but because it’s familiar. Live Search needs a way to get people searching, and Cashback is working to help accomplish those goals.

That may be why Microsoft is expanding Cashback by partnering with shopping cart providers Miva Merchant, Early Impact Inc. (ProductCart) and 3DCart. Through the agreement, merchants who use the shopping carts are eligible for Cashback.

Baidu is getting in the consumer-to-consumer (C2C) game (think eBay or indie sellers on Amazon.com) with a new site, Youa.com.

In the beginning, 10,000 sellers were chosen from over 100,000 applicants. 50,000 customers were chosen from Baidu’s online communities.

“Baidu Youa continues Baidu’s tradition of providing the best possible online experience for our users,” said Mr. Jun Yu, Baidu’s vice president of products. “This new C2C platform provides user-friendly shopping with emphasis on customer service.” Mr. Yu continued, “Our expansion into China’s early- stage e-commerce market is a natural move for Baidu as Chinese netizens are becoming more comfortable shopping online. With our vast user community, technological expertise, mature product offering and deep understanding of Chinese Internet landscape, we believe that we have a competitive edge in China’s C2C arena and look forward to taking full advantage of the growth potential of this sector of the Internet.”

Related Reading:
Baidu’s Profit Increases 91% in Third Quarter 2008
Omniture’s SearchCenter Now Integrated with Chinese Search Engine Baidu.com
1.8 Billion Internet Users by 2012, China to Overtake US Internet Use by 2011
Baidu Search Engine Launches IM in Beta - Baidu Hi

Back on July 20, 2008, I asked: “Is YouTube about to pass Yahoo in expanded searches?” Well, I’ve just had a chance to digest the latest data from comScore for August 2008 and its appears that YouTube has passed Yahoo — if you look at “expanded” search queries instead of “core” search queries.

First, what’s the difference between an expanded and a core search query? According to comScore, a “core” search query is one that occurs on “the five major search engines including partner searches and cross-channel searches. Searches for mapping, local directory, and user-generated video sites that are not on the core domain of the five search engines are not included in the core search numbers.”

If you expand the definition of a search query to include searches on YouTube, MapQuest, MySpace eBay, Craigslist.org, Facebook.com, or Amazon, then you get a different picture.

Google had 7.4 billion core search queries and 7.6 billion expanded search queries in August to lead no matter how you define a “search query.” Yahoo! had 2.3 billion core search queries and 2.4 billion expanded search queries that month. But “YouTube/All other” Google sites had 2.6 billion expanded search queries that month. Microsoft sites had 977 million core search queries and MSN-Windows Live had 988 million expanded search queries.

So, depending on your definition, the top three search engines are either (1) Google, Yahoo! and Microsoft, or (2) Google, YouTube, and Yahoo! That is a distinction with a big difference.

By the way, comScore Video Metrix reports that YouTube accounts for more than 98 percent of all videos viewed at Google sites. (This means Google Video accounts for less than 2 percent of all vides viewed at Google sites.)

So, if you’ve optimized the pages on your website that contain videos, you’ve optimized them for Google Video and other video search engines. They won’t help them get discovered, watched or shared on YouTube.

YouTube doesn’t crawl the web trying to index videos posted on millions of websites. Instead, users are now uploading 13 hours of new video to YouTube every minute. So, getting your video found in about 2.6 billion expanded searches a month means uploading and optimizing video for YouTube, not Google Video.

Google had been doing a series of posts about search quality. Today, the latest post in the series discusses how evaluation enters into the the process.

Scott Huffman, Engineering Director, gave four insights into the nuances of difficulty experienced in search evaluation:

• First, understanding what a user really wants when they type a query — the query’s “intent” — can be very difficult. For highly navigational queries like [ebay] or [orbitz], we can guess that most users want to navigate to the respective sites. But how about [olympics]? Does the user want news, medal counts from the recent Beijing games, the IOC’s homepage, historical information about the games, … ? This same exact question, of course, is faced by our ranking and search UI teams. Evaluation is the other side of that coin.
• Second, comparing the quality of search engines (whether Google versus our competitors, Google versus Google a month ago) is never black and white. It’s essentially impossible to make a change that is 100% positive in all situations; with any algorithmic change you make to search, many searches will get better and some will get worse.
• Third, there are several dimensions to “good” results. Traditional search evaluation has focused on the relevance of the results, and of course that is our highest priority as well. But today’s search-engine users expect more than just relevance. Are the results fresh and timely? Are they from authoritative sources? Are they comprehensive? Are they free of spam? Are their titles and snippets descriptive enough? Do they include additional UI elements a user might find helpful for the query (maps, images, query suggestions, etc.)? Our evaluations attempt to cover each of these dimensions where appropriate.
• Fourth, evaluating Google search quality requires covering an enormous breadth. We cover over a hundred locales (country/language pairs) with in-depth evaluation. Beyond locales, we support search quality teams working on many different kinds of queries and features. For example, we explicitly measure the quality of Google’s spelling suggestions, universal search results, image and video searches, related query suggestions, stock oneboxes, and many, many more.

Not sure if I’m buying that Olympics example. Google didn’t do a great job with the Beijing Olympics, and surely their algorithm could handle serving up more relevant search results during the time surrounding the event.

I’m not saying that search query intent evaluation is easy, just that the Olympics query is not quite as problematic as Google is making it out to be.

The rest of the points are things we’ve been hearing from Google for a long time. We know they’re progressing on universal and personalization search efforts, all in their famous intent to create the best user experience.

So, what methods does Google employ to address these evaluations? Huffman offered up the following:

• Human evaluators. Google makes use of evaluators in many countries and languages. These evaluators are carefully trained and are asked to evaluate the quality of search results in several different ways. We sometimes show evaluators whole result sets by themselves or “side by side” with alternatives; in other cases, we show evaluators a single result at a time for a query and ask them to rate its quality along various dimensions.
• Live traffic experiments. We also make use of experiments, in which small fractions of queries are shown results from alternative search approaches. Ben Gomes talked about how we make use of these experiments for testing search UI elements in his previous post. With these experiments, we are able to see real users’ reactions (clicks, etc.) to alternative results.

What do you think of Google’s search evaluation? What evaluations would you like to see them conduct? Discuss in the comments.

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