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It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

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Microsoft’s adCenter is launching a new offer for Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization (SEMPO) members: $1000 in free clicks. Campaigns created through the promotion will be placed on Live Search and the MSN portal. Those who wish to become SEMPO members to take advantage of the offer must join the organization by December 31, 2008.

“SEMPO members, both agency and corporate search marketers, represent some of the most knowledgeable and innovative search marketing leaders in the industry,” said Valerie Bolduc, senior global product marketing manager, Advertiser and Publisher Solutions, Microsoft. “Working with SEMPO provides Microsoft with the opportunity to engage and learn from the search marketing community, which enables us to enhance our products and offerings to better serve our mutual customers.”

SEMPO President Jeffrey Pruitt noted, “SEMPO’s continued growth is tied to the strong support of its sponsors. Microsoft has long been our lead sponsor and advocate on several fronts including the SEMPO Training Institute, as well as for special programs like the adCenter search advertising promotion. Our industry association greatly appreciates Microsoft’s strong commitment and ongoing participation.”

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Google Analytics is now offering Flash tracking. The tracking code is translated into ActionScript 3 programming language. While Google Analytics has been able to provide workarounds in the past, this new feature simplifies the way to track Flash, Flex, and AS3 Content.

Sprout, a company that helps businesses create rich media content, used the code to track videos across MySpace and iGoogle. The Google Analytics team talked to them about their experience:

What do you think of the announcement? Leave us a comment and let us know.

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It’s easy to pick on Microsoft. It’s practically a national pastime at this point. So when they announced their Cashback program to help grow Live Search, the snears came fast and furious.

“You have to pay people to search?” they said.

Turn your laughter into claps, people. It turns out that Cashback is working. Microsoft is seeing positive results on three goals it said it would report. They are:

• Number of offers in the system
• Advertiser return on investment (ROI)
• Percentage of commercial search queries as measured by comScore

There’s been a 30% increase in the number of products offered via Cashback. 4.5 million unique users per month are generating 68 million commercial queries. eBay has seen an increase of 50% on their ROI.

“We believe this early traction speaks to the differentiated and unique value proposition of Microsoft Live Search cashback for both consumers and advertisers, especially in these tough economic times,” said Brad Goldberg, general manager of Microsoft Live Search.

Is it really any surprise that incentives work? No. Have you ever been listening to the radio and they’re having a $1,000 giveaway? You have to be listening at the right times to call in.

Incentives are nothing new. Microsoft was smart to implement them into Live Search. People don’t necessarily use Google because it’s any better but because it’s familiar. Live Search needs a way to get people searching, and Cashback is working to help accomplish those goals.

That may be why Microsoft is expanding Cashback by partnering with shopping cart providers Miva Merchant, Early Impact Inc. (ProductCart) and 3DCart. Through the agreement, merchants who use the shopping carts are eligible for Cashback.

Search Engine Strategies Chicago starts in four weeks on Dec. 8, 2008. Since SES Chicago is the only SEM conference in the Midwest, it is expect to attract more than 2,000 attendees, or “delegates.”

But as Butch Cassidy frequently asked the Sundance Kid, “Who are those guys?”

In the past, there was anecdotal information about the quality of attendees who came to Search Engine Strategies Chicago. And as a frequent speaker, I would often ask for a show of hands to get a sense of the percentage of first time attendees and SES veterans.

But now, there is survey data that provides a clearer picture of the demographics of delegates from last year’s event. And I suspect it’s the kind of information that exhibitors and sponsors of the SES expo have been asking for:
• 87% of delegates are new to SES, 13% are alumni;
• 85% of delegates approve or recommend purchasing decisions;
• 52% of delegates have a high level of experience within search marketing;
• 36% of delegates are from a company of 100+ employees;
• Nearly 1,300 unique companies attended SES Chicago 2007, 27% of these companies sent two or more staff.

In addition, 41% of the attendees are in marketing or management; 27% are in web design or e-commerce; 23% are in corporate management or owners; and 9% are non-marketing professionals. And 57% approve or specify purchases, 28% make recommendations, and only 15% have no involvement in purchases.

That’s why you’ll see 40 sponsors and exhibitors at the Search Engine Strategies Expo. Savvy search engine marketers understand the value of quality attendance.

As Bill Muller, the VP Marketing for iProspect, has said, “SES is a terrific event series, one that we plan to be at in New York, San Jose, and Chicago.” Or as Ginny Redgate, VP Marketing for Hitwise, has said, “SES provides us great brand visibility within the search marketing community as well as quality leads. It is a great place for us to connect with our clients.”

I don’t think Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid could have said it better.

Over at the Official Google blog, Dan Russell of the Search Quality team, has written a lengthy post on field studying search behavior. One of the things Russell discovered is that there is often a disparity between what people say they’re searching for and what they actually do search for.

There’s also a disparity between what they searched for and what they remember searching for later on.

Another area Russell dives into is eye tracking. Here’s a video showing the eye tracking of 3 different people searching for “school backpack.”

Last but not least, Russell explained the discovery that the “Advanced Search” page was really turning searchers off. They often were so overwhelmed or uninspired by the options, that they left the advanced options blank. They used that information to re-design the Advanced Search page.

All in all it was a nice little insight into how Google doesn’t just use tech testing such as Website Optimizer or Analytics to create a better experience for their users, but watching actual human behavior in person is extremely useful as well.

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The FCC agreed to open the “white space” - the broadcast spectrum used by over the air television - to use by others apart from the regulated television stations, by a vote of 5-0 yesterday. This is a major accomplishment that companies such as Google, Microsoft, Dell and Hewlitt-Packard have been lobbying for over the past couple of years.

As Larry Page noted in the Official Google blog, “This is a clear victory for Internet users and anyone who wants good wireless communications.”

The WIA details:

“TV white spaces will increase accessibility to more reliable broadband networks, known as “mesh networks.” Mesh networks are self forming networks created by consumer electronics devices. Devices will simply find each other in the same way they find Wi-Fi hot spots today and broadband traffic can be routed through devices based on consumer preferences. For example, mesh networks will allow users wireless connectivity in the business environment. Easily accessible connectivity to office networks will generate efficiency in routine business processes-from printing documents remotely to transferring data to a client during a meeting.

Mesh networks also help to create connectivity in dead zones. These networks make it possible for the most common electronic devices to communicate with each other to resourcefully locate and establish a connection in nontraditional scenarios—like in a tunnel, or while riding the subway. “

The opportunities have been called “wifi on steroids” - as this spectrum would provide cheaper and more powerful wifi broadband access. There is a good video explaining the white space oportunities offered by the Wireless Innovation Alliance.

There have been promises of services being available within 90 days of it being opened up for use so we will have to wait and see what develops, but given the penetration is better and the service is wider - the use of this broadband methodology could dramatically increase internet access to many at a lower cost and using less power to do so.

Microsoft’s Bill Gates sees white space as helping WiFi “explode in terms of its usage, even out into some of these less dense areas where distance has been a big problem for Wi-Fi.”

JP Morgan Internet analyst Imran Khan is lowering projections for search ad spend for 2008 and 2009. The forecast for 2008 growth is now 23.4% year-over-year, down from earlier projections at 27.4%. The forecast for 2008 is a dismal 17.3%, down from 25.5%.

Khan sees specific sectors as being hit harder than others, particulary travel, telecom, autos, and retail. Still, Khan expects search advertising to hold up better than display advertising.

What do you think of Khan’s revised projections?

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If you’re not familiar, CafePress is a site where you can purchase custom-designed apparel and gifts. There are many merchants selling their designs as well. Today, CafePress unveiled its new design, and it looks great.

But searching for a design you like can be a chore. That’s why I think CafePress should adopt an online ratings system to help the best designs be showcased first in their search results.

Yes, this can be abused, but it can also create a community, something that is currently only found in the CafePress forums.

CafePress competitor, Zazzle, which has experienced explosive growth in the past year despite higher prices and fewer products. What they do have is a 5 star rating system as well as the opportunity to leave comments on products. I think this helps customers better find what they’re looking for. If I had to take a guess, a customer would rather pay $5 for better design at Zazzle than a mediocre design at CafePress.

Don’t get me wrong, there are quality designs at CafePress, but finding them organically, like I said, is a chore.

Hopefully the next design update CafePress unveils is a techie-one that improves search.

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