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Preparing for the Worst: Bad Online Economic Data Just in Time for Black Friday

It’s the day before Thanksgiving, where you show up at the office, but you’re really thinking about tomorrow’s good meal. You’ve worked hard to set up those search marketing campaigns to run strong on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

So, I really hate to bring you the bad news, but keeping it from you would be a disservice.

Let’s just rip off the bandaid.

First up, eMarketer has lowered its projections for online advertising spending for 2009. The new growth number is 8.9%, down from 14.5% projected in August. They’re also expecting a long recovery, projecting 2010 growth to be just 10.9%. In five years, things will still be slower on the uptake (than in recent years). Projections for 2013 growth are at 13.5%. Silver lining: some of the tapering off is likely due to market saturation and not just the economy.

emarketerprojections112608percent.jpg

Next, eBay’s traffic is declining. In January of 2007, eBay saw 62 million unique visitors. Last month, they saw just 49 million. Sure, not all of that was due to the economy, but dipping below 50 million can’t be good for eBay.

I saved the worst for last. comScore has released data showing that online consumer spending for the first 23 days of November was down 4% from last year. That’s not a slow down in growth people, that’s flat out shrinkage.

But I’m not a total Scrooge. Unemployment numbers were better than expected this week. And at least one Slate columnist explains why fears of another Great Depression could be overblown (let’s hope he’s right!).

As we overdose on turkey, stuffing and pumpkin pie, let us not forget the ultimate strategy for marketing, business and life in general: Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

Related Reading:
Selling SEO During an Economic Downturn
E-commerce Growth Slows to Just 1% in October 2008
Online Advertising Networks Struggle As Industry Growth Slows

4 Reasons to Go to SES Chicago

If you register today to attend Search Engine Strategies Chicago, which will be held Dec. 8-12, 2008, you can save up to $200 with the Early Bird Rate.

So, why would you want to attend the only major Search Marketing Conference and Expo in the Midwest?

Let me give you 4 reasons to go to SES Chicago.

1. You’ll want to attend as many of the 74 keynote speeches, strategic development workshops, Orion panels, conference sessions, and SEM training workshops as you can. If you look over the agenda, you’ll see lots of topics that weren’t discussed at Search Engine Strategies Chicago a year ago. In fact, you’ll see new content that wasn’t covered at SES San Jose back in August. Heading into 2009 using old strategies and tactics makes about as much sense as optimizing your website for AltaVista. Things change in the search industry and savvy SEOs and SEMs understand the competitive advantage of staying up-to-date.

2. If you look over the list of sponsors and exhibitors for SES Chicago, you’ll see familiar names like Acronym Media, DoubleClick, iProspect, PrintPlace.com and TMP Directional Marketing as well as new names like AdBuyer.com, ideaLaunch, Rosetta, The Search Agency and SEO Samba. So, whether this is your first Search Engine Strategies Chicago or you’ve attended every one held since 2003, there will be plenty of products and services to check out on the show floor.

3. Next, you’ll want to take advantage of the special events and networking opportunities. On Tuesday, Dec. 9, DoubleClick will be holding a networking lunch from noon to 12:45 p.m. It will be presenting a case study on multi-channel tracking that will address how to de-duplicate search conversions when using numerous online channels. Later that afternoon, Google will hold a sponsored session entitled, “Google Site Search: Fast, Relevant, Customized Search Results for Your Website.” Google’s Nitin Mangtani will be discussing how customers are using Google Site Search to grow their businesses and how you can do the same for yours. And here’s a hot tip for first time attendees of SES Chicago: If you hang out at Kitty O’Sheas, the authentic Irish pub on the ground floor of the Hilton Chicago, you can network with fellow marketers and search engine industry professionals after hours. Plus, I recommend the shepard’s pie and Bailey’s cheese cake.

Greg%20Jarboe%20wearing%20Buckeye%20shirt.jpg 4. Now, this fourth reason will only make sense if Big 10 football is more important to you than search engine reputation management. As those of us who grew up in the Midwest already know, there’s a big football game tomorrow: Ohio State vs Michigan. Now, I’m a Wolverine. But I’ve made some friendly bets with others in the search industry who are Buckeyes. And as you can see from the photo in this post, if we lose the big game, I have to wear a Buckeye shirt to the next Search Engine Strategies conference — again. And, we’ve lost a lot over the past few years. So, depending on whether you are a graduate of the University of Michigan or The Ohio State University, I encourage you to come to Chicago in December to see who is wearing which sweatshirt this year.

In summary, there are three good reasons to go to SES Chicago no matter what happens tomorrow. And there’s a 4th good reason if Michigan upsets Ohio State, like we did in 1993.

Go Blue!

Yahoo! oneSearch Selected as Mobile Search Service for T-mobile’s Web2go

Yahoo!’s mobile search product, oneSearch, has been selected by T-mobile for Web2go, their new customizable mobile web portal.

Yahoo’s oneSearch is designed to provide answers. For example, if you query a sports team, the results will give you scores, schedules, team profiles and the team’s web site.

David Ko, senior vice president, Connected Life, Yahoo! Inc. had this to say: “With our innovative products and global partnerships we are a leader in mobile search and are incredibly excited to bring Yahoo! oneSearch to more and more users every day. Together, T-Mobile and Yahoo! are providing users with compelling mobile services, while creating unique opportunities for advertisers to reach the rapidly growing audience of mobile consumers.”

In September, Yahoo! announced that oneSearch had been set as default on AT&T’s mobile web portal. In August, a shortcut to oneSearch was launched on select Nokia devices.

Matt Cutts Video Interview on SESConferenceExpo’s Channel

During Search Engine Strategies San Jose back in August, I did a video interview with Matt Cutts, head of Google’s Webspam team. It will be uploaded to the SESConferenceExpo’s Channel on YouTube tomorrow.

Greg%20Jarboe%20interviews%20Matt%20Cutts.jpg Why the wait?

As Maury Sline explained to The Blues Brothers, “A gig like that, you gotta prepare the proper exploitation.”

So, here’s a taste of what you can look forward to seeing and hearing in tomorrow’s video interview: Matt talks about his job interview at Google before he joined the company as a software engineer in January 2000. He takes a look at trends in the industry, including mobile search. He praises an iPhone App developed by Barry Schwartz, President of RustyBrick. And he discusses the Cuttlets, the people who crowd around him at every search conference.

And what can you do today to ensure that you don’t miss the Matt Cutts video interview tomorrow? I’m glad you asked.

First, go to the SESConferenceExpo’s Channel and take a quick look around. You’ll find there are now 184 videos from SES London, SES New York, SES Toronto, and SES San Jose 2008.

According to YouTube Insight, these 184 videos currently have more than 45,000 combined views. That’s about three times more views than the number of people who attended these four conferences and expos this year.

And there will be more video interviews added during and after Search Engine Strategies Chicago, which will be held Dec. 8-12, 2008. That’s a lot of content — and a lot of insights from top search experts and the search engines themselves.

Now, some of these video interviews are uploaded to YouTube during each SES conference. But others are uploaded in the weeks and months following a show.

So, if you want to be alerted when the Matt Cutts video interview has been posted, all you need to do is hit the orange “Subscribe” button in the upper left hand corner of the SESConferenceExpo’s Channel, which already has 142 subscribers.

To embed one of these video interviews, just copy the code from the “Embed” box — which you can find in the “About This Video” box when you’re watching the video. Once you’ve copied the code, just paste it into your website or blog to embed it.

And if you want to embed several of these video interviews, use the Search Engine Strategies video widget. It will let you customize a SES Video Player Widget for the audience on your website or blog.

For example, in the header options, I selected the standard link and said I’m blogging at SES Chicago. For my playlist content, I selected videos of everyone, picked two thumbnails with a maximum of 25 results. And for my format option, I selected a vertical orientation. And the SES Video Player Widget generated the code for me to past into this blog post.

Now, I could have selected a customized header. And after going through an authentication process, I could have customized my playlist — and display only videos of my company. Or I could display videos of everyone, but with videos of my company first. You can see an example of this on the SEO-PR website.

Or, you can see an example of a more bi-partisan approach on the Search Engine Strategies Chicago home page — just below the fold. (By the way, if you register by Friday, Nov. 21, you can save up to $200 with the Early Bird rate.)

Now, I don’t need to explain the benefits of adding video to your blog. Search engine marketers and popular bloggers understand that already. But consider the benefits of adding relevant content from the latest SES conference and expo — quality content that can be customized for your audience. And, don’t take my word for it, check it out for yourself. It is useful content that your website’s visitors will find beneficial or your blog readers will find valuable.

What’s the catch?

Well, if you select videos of everyone, then you might end up with a Matt Cutts video interview on your website or blog. And if anyone watches it, that would give the SESConferenceExpo’s Channel on YouTube more views.

Or, as Elwood told Maury Sline, “I know all about that stuff. I have been exploited all my life.”

Chitika Sees 200% Growth in Premium Ads for 2008

Contextual advertising network Chitika has announced that their Premium Ads product has seen 200% growth in 2008. The ads are now being served on the sites of 34,000 publishers.

Chitika says the ads work best on sites that garner traffic from search engines. The ads on the publisher’s site target the keywords that the visitor came in on. The ad also offers the ability to search within the ad, never having to leave the page of the site they’re currently visiting.

Chitika calls it search-targeted advertising. Because of that, they’re comparing the program to search engine ads. And they’re saying they’ve surpassed Ask.com’s August 2008’s numbers of 364 million searches.

Related Reading:
Chitika Injects Video, Social to Ads
Chitika Launches Automatic-Merchandising Ads

Blog Content Influences Consumer Buying Behavior

New market research has found that blog readers are strongly influenced by blog content when it comes to purchase decisions across a number of categories, and that blogs play a key role in ushering readers to the point of an actual purchase. BuzzLogic, a social media analysis company and ad network, sponsored the market research and JupiterResearch, a Forrester research company, conducted the survey of more than 2,000 online consumers in the US.

Barry%20Parr%20JupiterResearch.jpg Their Harnessing the Power of Blogs survey also found that blog readership has grown 300% over the past four years. The results also suggest that consumers who read blogs more than once per month — or frequent blog readers — use blogs as the top online navigation tool to discover other blog content, ranking higher than general Web search or blog search.

Rob%20Crumpler%20BuzzLogic.jpg The new market research will be the focus of a free webinar, “Consumers and the Influence of Blogs: What it Means for Your Marketing Mix,” which will be held on Thursday, November 20, 2008, at 2:00 p.m. EDT / 11:00 a.m. PDT. The free webinar will be moderated by Matt McGowan, vice president and publisher for Incisive Media’s digital marketing businesses, and will feature Barry Parr, Analyst at JupiterResearch, and Rob Crumpler, President and CEO of BuzzLogic.

Looking more closely at how blogs factor into consumer purchase decisions and the nature of blog influence on buying behavior, the survey found:
• Blogs influence purchases: 50% of blog readers say they find blogs useful for purchase information.
• Blogs sway more purchases among readers than social networks: More frequent blog readers say they trust relevant blog content for purchase decisions than content from social networking sites. Enid Burns of The ClickZ Network focused on this finding in her recent story about the survey, “Study: Blogs Influence Purchases More Than Social Sites.”
http://www.clickz.com/showPage.html?page=3631303
• Niche focus ups influence factor: For those who have found blog content useful for product decisions, 56% said blogs with a niche focus and topical expertise were key sources.
• Blogs go beyond tech: Outside of technology-related purchases, for which 31% of readers say blogs are useful, other key categories include: media and entertainment (15%); games/toys and/or sporting goods (14%); travel (12%); automotive (11%); and health (10%).

According to the study, blogs factor in to critical stages of the purchase process, weighing most heavily at the actual moment of a purchase decision. When it comes to respondents who said they have trusted blog content for purchase decisions in the past, over half (52 percent) say blogs played a role in the critical moment they decided to move forward with a purchase.

Blog readers were also surveyed about the influence of blogs as it relates to the following steps of the purchase process:
• 21% decide on a product or service,
• 19% refine choices,
• 19% get support and answers,
• 17% discover products and services,
• 14% assure,
• 13% inspire a purchase
• 7% execute a purchase.

For frequent blog readers, ads on blogs are on par with sponsored search results. However, trust of blog advertising exceeds that of social networking site advertising. A quarter of these readers say they trust ads on a blog they read; paid search links also accounted for 25% of the responses, while 19% say they trust ads on social networking sites.

The study also suggests that ads on blogs spur a number of activities: 40% of blog readers have taken action as a result of viewing an ad on a blog; 50% of frequent blog readers say this is the case. The top activities include:
• 17% read product reviews online,
• 16% sought out more info on a product or service,
• 16% visited a manufacturer or retailer website.

JupiterResearch designed and fielded the survey in August 2008 to online consumers selected randomly from the NPD Group US online consumer panel. A total of 2,210 individuals responded. For more information on the survey’s methodology, go to JupiterResearch.

Now, blogs certainly aren’t considered the “newbies” of the social media scene – “granddaddies” is probably a more appropriate term. But that gives them an advantage from a marketing perspective – the medium has matured and moved from early adopter phase to the mainstream.

This may come as a surprise to some search engine marketers, but blog readers do not appear to rely as heavily on search as a means to find new blogs as consumers of traditional online media do. According to the new survey, one in five consumers who have read a blog in the past 12 months — or general blog readers — use blog links to discover new blogs. Further, the study suggests blogs are not consumed in isolation — 49% of blog readers and 71% of frequent readers read more than one blog per session. Other key findings include:
• Links more powerful than search: For frequent readers, links beat search as a navigation tool: 38 percent said blog links were the top tool for discovering new blog content as compared to 34 percent who voted for Web search.
• Links signal trust: For frequent readers, blog links appear to have similar impact as a trusted recommendation from a person (a response from 39 percent of survey participants).
• Blog search not yet mainstream: Blog search engines received the lowest ranking from respondents: 6 percent of general readers and 11 percent of frequent readers say they use these tools to discover new blogs.

If you are interested in getting more details about Harnessing the Power of Blogs, register for the free Webinar. Again, it will be held on Thursday, November 20, 2008, at 2:00 p.m. EDT / 11:00 a.m. PDT.

Even Semel’s Daughter Prefers Google

An interesting story about former Yahoo CEO Terry Semel’s daughter who is being sued for an alleged assault - she asked “don’t you know who I am? Google me you dumb f–k”, according to TMZ.com.

“In a lawsuit filed yesterday in L.A. County Superior Court, Jaroslaw Jarczok claims he was working security last August at 4:00 AM at PURE Nightclub when Courtenay (Semel) was “quite intoxicated due to alcohol and/or chemical or other substances.” He claims she got all foul-mouthed on him,” TMZ reported.

14.5 Million People in the U.K. Visited at Least One Blog

comScore released a study today that found 14.5 million people in the U.K. visited at least one blog in August, representing 41% of the total U.K. Internet audience.

SES%20London%202008.jpg “Blogs have become part of the essential fabric of the Internet today,” Herve Le Jouan, Managing Director of comScore Europe said in a press release. “They live and breathe in real-time, helping quench media consumers’ thirst for the most up-to-date breaking news, information, and analysis. It should not, therefore, be particularly surprising that they’re increasingly displacing traditional media usage and carving out an ever-increasing slice of the online advertising pie,” he added.

Two of the most popular blogs in the U.K. are gadget blogs: Engadget.com, which ranked as the top individual blog in August with 243,000 visitors, and Gizmodo.com, which ranked third with 223,000 visitors. UnrealityTV.co.uk (225,000 visitors), Kotaku.com (210,000 visitors), and Metafilter.com (207,000 visitors) rounded out the top five.

According to the comScore Segment Metrix H/M/L service, which looks at online activity by heavy, medium and light users of the Internet, heavy blog users were 142% more likely than the average Internet user to visit a site in the “humour” category, a testament perhaps to the sharp wit often associated with blogging. They are also likely to be tech savvy, which can be seen by their skew in visiting technology news categories.

I’ve met a couple of “heavy” blog users in the U.K. — who weigh 38 stone between them. ;-)

Seriously, blogs are big in old Blighty. If you check out the agenda for SES London 2009, which has already been posted, you’ll see there will be a session on Feb. 18, 2009, on “SEO Through Blogs and Feeds.” And, who — you may ask — is responsible for that?

Search Engine Strategies London 2009 is organized and hosted by world-renowned search authority Mike Grehan. As you can see below, I interviewed Mike back at SES London 2008. And you can detect some of that “humour” and tech savvy that comScore just reported, although there is no way that Mike weighs more than 14 stone. But, of course, I’m just guessing.


Mike Grehan, Acronym, on SES London 2008

Yahoo Updates Social Profiles, Adds Local SearchMonkey Apps to Default

Seems Google wasn’t the only one with some updates to release at the end of this week. Yahoo gets in on the action by updating social profiles and setting some SearchMonkey apps for local content to default.

First up, Yahoo profiles are going universal. In other words, you can manage your Yahoo profile from various Yahoo properties. The goal is to eventually be able to manage your profile from non-Yahoo sites embracing OpenSocial.

It will be nice when that happens, because I much prefer Yahoo’s minimalistic and easy-to-use profile than most social networks:

yahooprofile1008.jpg

Meanwhile, Citysearch and Zagat are having their SearchMonkey apps set to default. That means all users will see their uniquely coded results (when relevant, of course) during Yahoo searches. Here’s how the Citysearch one will look:

2945779695_1b310cf2a4.jpg

In August, Yahoo set Yelp, LinkedIn and Yahoo Local apps to default.

Is Yahoo Being Undervalued by Wall Street?

Despite Yahoo’s decline in the search market as of late, some are beginning to cry foul, saying Wall Street is punishing YHOO just a little too much. Prices dipped below $11 a share this week, almost half the value when Microsoft made its acquisition offer for $31 per share.

A couple of points in defense of Yahoo:

  1. Its decline in search market share is slight. They’re still #2. They’re comparable to the Apple of the search world if you’re just looking at the numbers.
  2. The stock is being brought down by the greater market. Even Google’s stock is down to the mid-300s, despite beginning the year in the high 500s. But Google posted an increase in revenue and beat the pessimistic Street yesterday. Their stock is on the rise at this hour, while the Dow Jones is on the decline again.
  3. They have a bunch of strong properties, including Yahoo Sports, which had a stellar August thanks to the Olympics. They’re also number 1 in email.

A couple of points in defense of Wall Street:

  1. Jerry Yang is no Steve Jobs (or at least not anymore).
  2. The search advertising partnership with Google has been delayed while they attempt to work things out with a wary DOJ.
  3. The economy has everyone holding their wallets tight.

Jerry Yang and the gang need to refocus on the customer instead of executive bonuses, while Wall Street needs to understand that while advertising in general may decline, search advertising is an attractive option for advertisers looking to maximize budgets.

Oh, and in case you’re wondering, Microsoft remains a scorned lover.

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