Why Do Horse Racing Systems Fail When You Start Betting With Them?

So why do Horse Racing Systems always seem to fail for you?

First, let's consider the difference between a Horse Racing System and a Horse Racing Tipster.

Tipsters will either sell or give away free tips on specific races. You have no idea how they determine their picks and you do not care, as long as they are profitable.

A System is something you buy, typically in downloadable PDF form, that tells you the criteria on how to pick a particular horse to either win or lose in a particular race. So the big difference is that a Tipster will do all of the work for you. This involves reading the form and applying the criteria to pick the horse. Many prefer a Tipster over a System because it involves less work, i.e. not having to read the racing form.

But there is a more subtle difference, and it has to do with control. A tipster controls his system and makes money selling his tips on a subscription basis. Therefore he has a vested interest in not over selling his tips and ensuring they are profitable. Someone selling a system only makes money selling the system and once sold no longer has control over the criteria used.

How does this cause the system to fail?

First, the system will be oversold and too many punters will be using it, not to mention that punters tend to share with their friends. When too many people bet a horse to win it will shorten in price and vice versa for laying a horse, the price will drift.

This shortening or drifting in price can cause a winning system to suddenly be a loser. For example your laying system is achieving a 90% strike rate, that is 9 out of 10 races you win when the horse loses. You will be profitable if the horses that win, and thus you lose, are obtained at less than 9 to 1. If too many punters are all trying to lay a horse that normally would be trading at 8 to 1 the price may drift to 11 to 1. Now you have a losing system.

Do you think someone selling you a betting system will truly limit how many are sold? I don't because I have visited sites months after their sales page warned of limited copies and they are still selling to the public.

There is another important reason why Horse Racing Systems fail however I will save that for a future article.

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