Mortgage Rates Fall For The Third Week In A Row

The 30 year rate fell from 5.06 to 4.99 this week. This marks the 3rd week in a row where rates have fallen. Although rates have been falling they are still quite a bit off the all time low of 4.71 we saw on December 3, 2009. That said it's nice to see rates falling again. Looking at other rates the 15 year dropped from 4.45 to 4.40. The 5 and 1 year arms dropped from 4.32 to 4.27 (5 year arm) and 4.39 to 4.32 (1 year arm). Below are rates from the weeks from Dec 24, 2009 to Jan 21, 2010

Jan 21, 2010
30-fixed 4.99 15-fixed 4.40 5 ARM 4.27 1 ARM 4.32

Jan 14, 2010
30-fixed 5.06 15-fixed 4.45 5 ARM 4.32 1 ARM 4.39

Jan 07, 2010
30-fixed 5.09 15-fixed 4.50 5 ARM 4.44 1 ARM 4.31

Dec 31, 2009
30-fixed 5.14 15-fixed 4.54 5 ARM 4.44 1 ARM 4.33

Dec 24, 2009
30-fixed 5.05 15-fixed 4.45 5 ARM 4.40 1 ARM 4.38

Jul 23, 2009
30-fixed 5.20 15-fixed 4.68 5 ARM 4.74 1 ARM 4.77

It's a little surprising to see rates falling at a time when the major stories are that long term rates are going to increase. And in spite of the recent drops we still expect rates to rise long term. While it's hard to know what rates are going to do next week we still expect rates to be substantially higher in a year or two.

In addition to mortgage rates it's always nice to look at actual mortgage payments. We took today's rates and used our free mortgage calculator and turned them into mortgage payments for a 200k loan. We also did the same thing with rates from January, 07 2010 and rates from July, 23 2009

Jan 21
30-year $1072.42
15-year $1519.78
5-year ARM $986.22
1-year ARM $992.09

Jan 07
30-year $1084.67
15-year $1529.98
5-year ARM $1006.25
1-year ARM $990.91

Jul 23
30-year $1098.22
15-year $1548.44
5-year ARM $1042.08
1-year ARM $1045.7

So although rates are down the change in a mortgage payment is not that drastic. Compared to two weeks ago a mortgage payment on a 200k mortgage would be down $12.25 less or down 1.12 percent.
So what is our advice to people looking for a mortgage? First it's best to start the mortgage process early. This means to get one's credit score and start talking to the bank or mortgage broker they plan on using. We are no longer in 2007 and banks are still balking on clients with small problems with their credit reports. It's also probably wise to lock in now instead of waiting. While rates might drop slightly there is more of a chance of them rising drastically in the next few weeks than falling drastically since they simply don't have much room to fall. Also while the lower rates on the 5 and 1 arms is appealing it's probably a good idea to stick with the 30 year mortgage. Since rates are expected to rise its best to lock in with a long term rate instead of being forced to refinance in a few years.