Is February 09 The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market

I have spent a lot of time reviewing data to make certain that I can substantiate my positions and analysis. I know that I predicted the market was turning in August 2006...I just felt it in my bones, and in my wallet to be very candid. I vividly remember when gas first hit $3 per gallon, sales just hit a wall. When I was talking with customers they just started giving me reasons why they were not going to buy. In looking back now, I can prove it with sales statistics.

The second quarter of 2006 compared to the second quarter of 2005 shows units down slightly but total sales volume was up 10%. By the third quarter, sales volume was down 57% and unit sales were down over 50%. It was like sales had fallen off a cliff. At that point I was predicting that it would take a 10% adjustment in prices to get sales going. Who among us knew that it would go on another 2+ years and prices would decline to around 30% off the market highs for properly priced listings and as much as 50% for inflated listings.

Now, in calling the bottom of the market, the 4th quarter of 2008 was at the same level as in 2007. And the good news is that I am actually talking to people who are interested in buying and my sellers are aggressively lowering their prices and are willing to negotiate. This is coupled with the fact that interest rates are excellent and there really will be an OBAMA bounce in consumer confidence ;at least enough to create a bottom. Prices will continue to flounder and there will be foreclosures and short sales that will push prices down, but only slightly from where they are and some sellers will take offers and move on to another property;and by doing that they will make up for what they lost on the property they sold.

By going out on this limb, and it is a limb if something totally out of left-field happens, but with GM selling at $3 per share, BofA at $5, Citi at $3, GE at $13, I think we are already in the left-field bleachers watching the game anyway. The adjacent chart is a quick list of recent and pending sales that I believe signify the bottom of the market from a price standpoint. Check it out and you will then understand why I am calling this the bottom of the market.Here are some examples:

4008 Cameron...pending at $1,000,000...an almost new home that was originally listed at $2,500,000.

4008 Palm..an oceanfront lot with a tear down that sold inMarch 06 for $2,800,000..was listed at $3,600,000 ....it just sold for $1,995,000

13 55th...just sold for $900,000..was listed as high as $2,495,000....

20 Beachwood East...I just sold it for $2,250,000...at one time it was listed at $4,450,000

9 Dolphin Row...sold for $665,000 in May 08..in April 06, the house across the street sold for $1,025,000 and was torn down.