The government of Iran is treading on dangerous ground with the threats that it has made to close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation to increased world sanctions. The simple and best way for them to get the sanctions to end is to stop pursuing the production of nuclear weapons but the Iranian government refuses to do so.
Their argument is that they have the right to use nuclear technology and to develop nuclear weapons if necessary. Their argument is valid but it just wouldnt work that way for Iran. They have stated that it is their goal to wipe out Israel and their president believes that it is his destiny to start the holy war that will make Islam the dominant world religion. In order to do this, he must either convert all people to Islam of exterminate all of those who dont convert.
The US has responded to the threat by letting the Iranians know that it will not tolerate any disruption of traffic through the Strait. The world will not tolerate it because most of the worlds oil supplies have to flow through it. The increasingly heated exchange between the two countries raises new tensions in a standoff that has the potential to spark military reprisals and propel oil prices to levels that could batter a global economy already grappling with a European debt crisis.
Iran's navy chief boasted that it would be easy for his country to close the strait. It might be easy for a few days but after this I am inclined to disagree with him. The world would respond quickly by assembling a naval task force to expel the Iranians and reopen the strait.
Personally I believe that this is only saber rattling. The Iranians have to have sense enough to know that this will be a foolish move. I dont believe that hey are serious about this threat but they need to know that to attempt to do so would be disastrous.
A senior Saudi Arabian oil official told the AP that Gulf Arab nations are ready to step in to offset any potential loss of exports from Iran, which is the world's fourth largest oil producer. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to comment on the issue. This goes to show that even other Arab countries are concerned about Iran being in possession of nuclear weapons.
The reason that it is so important to keep the strait open is that million barrels of oil pass through it each day. This makes it super critical that the strait remain open. The world cannot allow the strait to be closed. A shutdown or closure for just one day would have a tremendous negative effect on the worlds economy.
Even though these statements are probably more than idle talk the very fact that they were made can have a negative effect on the worlds economy. The threat of closure will cause the world stock markets to react on a negative way.
Iran relies on crude sales for about 80 percent of its public revenues, and sanctions or an even pre-emptive measure by Tehran to withhold its crude from the market would already batter its flailing economy. You can see the position that the renewed and stronger sanctions would put the Iranians in. They have a way out but we will have to wait and see if they take it.
Military Ring Express
