Enigmatic Oil Prices

Enigmatic Oil Prices

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The dollar index last week as the market is expected to close after 80-point mark a strong rebound in the week rebounded as much as 3.16% total, commodity market generally under pressure.

Economic data released last week also extremely pessimistic, employment data, as expected, dragged down U.S. stocks fell straight out of the market.

The crude oil inventory and consumption is not optimistic. U.S. Department of Energy report released last week, gasoline inventories increased for the seventh consecutive week, including heating oil and distillate stocks, including diesel fuel jumped to the highest since the same period in 1983, the level of demand for finished oil products decline, weekly gasoline demand fell to two-month low.

Crude oil futures positions do not support higher oil prices the situation, according to the U.S. Futures Industry Commission (CFTC) data, as of August 10 of the week, non-commercial long positions in the reduction of 377 hands, while the short hand is substantially reduced 5035 to show Pupil exit signs on both sides, one for the 60,336 hand over the net.

This week the possibility of a large downward

"Poor economic data, the dollar index rebounded, rising inventories are the main reason for drop in oil prices. While the dollar index play a key role." Everbright Futures analyst, said Liu months.

What is most worrying is the decline in consumption, from late July has began to reduce gasoline consumption, indicating that the peak gasoline consumption this year is over, and once entered in September, gasoline consumption will be greatly reduced.

Liu months that the dollar index may continue to rebound this week, the fund position may not be conducive to higher oil prices.

From a technical perspective, oil prices stand at USD 80 then back to the bottom of that position earlier in the week oil prices could rebound or vibration, but more likely to continue falling, investors can focus on the dollar index, inventory report data.

Agency point of view

Three bodies up global oil demand forecast

Last week, the three agencies issued a monthly report, although invariably raised global oil demand this year, but remains concerned about the global economic recovery.

International Energy Agency (IEA) in its latest monthly oil market report said that in 2010 global oil demand expected to 8660 million barrels, representing an increase of 180 million barrels, an increase higher than the previous estimate of 8 million barrels in January. 2011, consumption will increase over the previous year to 130 million barrels a day 8790 million barrels higher than the 5 million barrels a day last month's figures.

The agency also said that prospects for global Jingji uncertainty concerns that oil demand throughout Zhe Wei Lai will be down Fengxian.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will in 2010 increase in global oil demand forecast up 10 million barrels to 105 million barrels; maintain the 2011 oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 105 million barrels. OPEC said in July OPEC production cuts implementation of the agreement on the extent of 52%, 55% lower than in June.

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on the 2010 global oil demand forecast up 1 million barrels, to an increase of 157 million barrels; 2011, oil demand is estimated on the basis of the last increase 4 million barrels, compared with increase this year, 151 million barrels.

In addition, EIA will also increase in 2010 demand forecast an increase of up to 8 million barrels of 65 million barrels; the 2011 China Petroleum (10.43,0.11,1.07%), increased by 1 million barrels of daily demand forecast, to an increase of 560 000 barrel.

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